Kalshi BTC 15-Minute Signal AI — V11
Live spot + market polling every 5–10 seconds · forward forecast · no login or trades.
Last successful update: — · Next refresh in — sec · polling is not a guaranteed exchange WebSocket stream.
WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW
Bitcoin reference feed
Waiting…
Fast momentum (~10s): —
Volatility: —
Cross-reference feeds
Coinbase: —
Kraken: —
Bitstamp: —
Waiting for exchange comparison…
Settlement index: NOT CONNECTED
Kalshi market
—
YES bid/ask: —
NO bid/ask: —
Time left: —
—
Strike: —
Position / risk check
Settings
Forward forecast — at contract close
Forecast updates as data arrives. It is an estimate, not a certainty.
Signal
NO probability: —
—
NO EV: —
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Experimental model.
Warnings will appear here.
V8 · Historical learning + explicit trade rules
Each market's first forecast is stored. After settlement, label the true outcome. V8 tracks overall and recent accuracy, Brier score, and patterns; it only nudges future probabilities when enough comparable labeled examples exist. Memory stays in this browser unless you export/import it.
Mark the selected market only after its result is final:
Learning requires completed, correctly labeled markets. Never label a market early.
V10 · Self-sufficient history & cross-reference center
Automatically collects public history from Kalshi's live/archive market endpoints and available BTC spot candles from Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. No CSV uploads or API keys required. Sources may have different retention limits; this panel reports actual coverage.
Runs in this browser tab. Keep it open while collecting. To avoid hammering public APIs, requests are paced and may take several minutes. It does not place trades or require account credentials. Historical exchange prices are spot references, not the official CF Benchmarks settlement index.
V8 · Clear BUY / HOLD / SELL rules
Rules are deliberately conservative. These are decision filters, not guarantees. A market can move against the forecast, and public spot feeds are not the official CF Benchmarks settlement index.
Only consider an entry when the model probability exceeds the executable ask plus estimated fees and the configured minimum edge; at least two independent spot feeds agree; contract bid/ask data is complete; there is enough time remaining; and the forecast is not marked stale or uncertain. If any condition fails: NO TRADE.
Hold only when the estimated probability for your side remains above the break-even probability (entry cost + fees), the model still shows positive expected value, and the expected value of holding is better than selling at the current bid after estimated exit costs. If data is stale or signals conflict: UNCERTAIN, not automatic HOLD.
Consider exiting when the model probability for your side drops below break-even, the forecast flips against your side, the current sell bid offers a better expected outcome than holding, or data/settlement uncertainty becomes too high. The dashboard cannot execute trades and does not know your actual fill unless you enter it.
Do not enter if expected net edge is below the selected threshold, feeds are stale/incomplete, spreads are wide, settlement target is unknown, or there is too little evidence. Do not interpret model confidence as a calibrated win probability.
V8 · Historical market learning & walk-forward backtest
Downloads settled BTC 15-minute market records and attempts to retrieve one-minute contract candles. It evaluates only prices available before each test decision, then scores the prediction against the settled outcome. This is Kalshi contract history—not a complete historical CF Benchmarks spot feed.
Public API requests may be rate-limited. If fewer markets/candles are retrieved than requested, the dashboard reports the actual coverage. A backtest cannot prove future profitability. No trades are placed.
Notes
V8 is an experimental historical-learning model, not a validated trading system. It learns only from user-labeled completed markets and reports past accuracy; past accuracy does not ensure future performance. Public market data is fetched through the hosted proxy. Confirm each market's settlement rules and actual fees. No trades are placed.
Kalshi API docs